The Blues travelled to Wellington to take on the Hurricanes at the Cake Tin on Saturday. I wrote on my Facebook page that the game was a coin toss and that whenever I can get 23/20 on a coin toss it is an automatic take for me. Added to that assertion was the Blues form and the fact they had beaten the Canes twice this season. I had the game classed as a “Must Bet”, and put down R1000 to win back R2150 for a Blues win.
Now, true to form, the game was a coin toss, and two points ultimately separated the two sides as Jordie Barrett slotted a conversion to take the Canes 29-27 up in the dying minutes of the match. It was a brilliant game of rugby and characteristic of everything Super Rugby Aotearoa has shown so far: that a try or less essentially separates all the New Zealand teams bar the Crusaders. I’m disappointed to have lost my money, but as I always try and reinforce to you guys, not disappointed with the bet I made. It could easily have gone the other way as the Blues led by five points with five minutes to play, and the return would have been brilliant. So again in every loss there is a lesson, and this is a lesson of patience and confidence in the reasoning behind my bet. If I was given the same odds, teams and circumstances again, I would not change the bet.
Now another lesson from the weekend came from MoneyBoy’s side of the world. He called it spot on, backing the Canes on the -1.5 handicap, putting down a conservative R50 to win back R93 at just over 18/10. His words to me were “I saw the Canes go up early, got greedy and added another R100 (double his initial amount), to a riskier bet that they would win on a -4.5 handicap.” So the victory of his spot on call was dulled by the loss of an impulsive bet. This points to something which I’ve spoken about a bit before in my videos, which is to be cautious when placing in game bets as any sporting match will naturally have an ebb and flow and ever-shifting momentum. Based on the quality of both sides and everything pre-match which pointed towards a tight contest, that bet was a bit of an early throw-away.
Other than that, it was a quiet weekend. Both MoneyBoy and I stayed away from the Chiefs v Highlanders clash, not seeing much value in the handicaps or over/under points markets. And thankfully so! It must have been a heart breaking Sunday for anybody who wagered on a Chiefs win, as they blew a 24-0 lead after 20 minutes to lose 33-31 injury time. While Gatland’s men did themselves a complete disservice with their 7th straight loss, the result points again to the small margins that separate the New Zealand sides points-wise.
